Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x206f…9e8b
sports · 12 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$18 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$19 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage311d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 4 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$124
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims) Marcin Tybura 47¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? No 9¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $119 +$124 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Mar 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $52 +$18 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 79% +$77
economics 12% −$41
other 7% −$13
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-61.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +104.9% +85.4% 100% 100% +85.4%
≤90d 4 -48.8% -53.6% 25% 25% +16.6%
all 8 -57.5% -61.6% 25% 25% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.6% 25% -3.8%
10% -65.2% 25% -13.0%
15% -68.6% 12% -21.4%
20% -71.7% 12% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.31 · official $39.31 (match) · 20 history records