Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x206c…2632 other 82 markets active 54d ago coverage 442d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$44,480 (+14%) realized +$44,480 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate79%65W / 17L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$3,838per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$48,281
culture 14% −$14,371
politics 13% −$60
crypto 12% +$1,431
tech 9% +$9,570
sports 0% −$370
weather 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +96.1% +77.4% 100% 100% +77.4%
all 82 -3.6% -12.8% 79% 16% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 16% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 11% -6.6%
15% -28.8% 6% -15.6%
20% -35.8% 6% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +96% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$918 vs −$1,263 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.93 per $1 lost it wins $3.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$44,480
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses65 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage442d
Avg bet$3,838
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants May 06 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Nov 07 $4 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Nov 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Nov 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $2.20 September 22-28? Nov 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Nov 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Wyatt Langford win the 2025 AL MVP? Nov 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Cabral Libii win the Cameroon Presidential Election? Nov 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Max Fried win the 2025 AL Cy Young? Nov 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Nov 07 $83 $0 +0%
CHIPS Act repealed before July? Sep 25 $1 $0 +6%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Sep 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Czechia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? Sep 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Star Wars III' gross less than $19m on opening weekend? Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Sep 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 80–94 times May 30–June 6? Sep 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in June? Sep 25 $4 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in June? Sep 25 $4 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Sep 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will MDG win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Sep 25 $6 $0 +0%
Athletics vs. Tigers Sep 25 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Sep 25 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Sep 25 $11 $0 +4%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Sep 25 $19 $0 +2%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Blues vs. Jets Apr 20 $666 −$666 -100%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Apr 20 $370 +$290 +79%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-16? Apr 19 $222 +$168 +75%
Manhattan vs. Incarnate Word Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik be out as Ambassador to the United Nations in Trum Apr 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Congress grant Trump more funds for deportations? Apr 16 $1 $0 +22%
Senators vs. Sabres Apr 16 $2 +$3 +133%
Bulls vs. Hornets Apr 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Apr 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Apr 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in scoring? Apr 16 $15 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Apr 16 $18 +$3 +18%
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on March 7? Mar 11 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Diego Padres 51¢ $5 53d
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $4 197d
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-12-13? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 197d
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 233d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $100 233d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 233d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $20 251d
Will XRP dip to $2.20 September 22-28? BUY No 99¢ $2 277d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 277d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $83 277d
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 319d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 333d
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1? BUY No 100¢ $9 333d
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in June? BUY No 99¢ $4 358d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in June? BUY No 99¢ $4 358d
Athletics vs. Tigers BUY Tigers 75¢ $4 369d
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $4 369d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $7 369d
Will Max Fried win the 2025 AL Cy Young? BUY No 99¢ $5 378d
Will Wyatt Langford win the 2025 AL MVP? BUY No 100¢ $4 378d
Will Elon tweet 80–94 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 100¢ $4 392d
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 392d
Will Cabral Libii win the Cameroon Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 403d
Will MDG win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $5 403d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 403d
Will Solana reach $300 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 403d
Will Czechia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final BUY No 100¢ $2 410d
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 410d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 418d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 418d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.82 · official $126.82 (match) · 214 history records