Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x206c…4f34 other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,046 (+0%) realized +$1,046 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%26W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$1,488per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$21
14 days−$118
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$114
other 37% +$1,098
sports 13% +$17
economics 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$2
world 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -6.5% -15.4% 5% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 105 -4.8% -13.9% 10% 8% -9.3%
all 143 +2.1% -7.6% 18% 14% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 14% -9.1%
10% -16.4% 13% -17.8%
15% -24.5% 12% -25.7%
20% -31.9% 10% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 56% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,321) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$10 · ×8.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,321
Realized+$1,046
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses26 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)143 / 145
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,488
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $950 $950 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $371 $372 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,705 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,355 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,321 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $4,470 −$7 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4,640 −$5 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,524 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,633 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,632 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,671 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3,955 −$4 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,561 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,511 −$5 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,573 −$3 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $69 −$69 -100%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,465 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,454 −$5 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $988 +$2 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,791 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $4,244 −$5 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,366 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,502 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $84 +$54 +65%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,295 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $4,722 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,492 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $3,268 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 19 $1,156 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,676 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,683 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,689 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $3,013 −$3 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,689 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $2,309 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1,676 −$3 -0%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1,333 +$1,102 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $950 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $638 3h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $639 5h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $349 5h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $350 7h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $987 45h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $989 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,186 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,188 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,154 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,155 3d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,190 3d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,192 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,193 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,195 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $371 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,558 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,560 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,520 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,522 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,438 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,440 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,445 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,447 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,573 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,575 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,573 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,575 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,548 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,550 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,321.38 · official $1,321.38 (match) · 504 history records