Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
20 0x206c…2b8d sports 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 932d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,226 (-6%) realized −$1,159 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%46W / 54L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$269est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days−$974
14 days−$893
30 days−$1,360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,653
other 1% +$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +3.4% -6.4% 43% 43% -17.3%
≤30d 100 -5.9% -14.8% 46% 46% -16.0%
≤90d 100 -5.9% -14.8% 46% 46% -16.0%
all 100 -5.9% -14.8% 46% 46% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 46% -16.0%
10% -23.0% 41% -24.1%
15% -30.4% 37% -31.4%
20% -37.3% 26% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$142 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

932d coverage
Net worth$917
Realized−$1,159
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses46 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$269
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage932d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Hokori 42¢ 40¢ $509 $483 −$27 (-5%)
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) EDward Gaming 31¢ 30¢ $442 $435 −$7 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 12¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $582 +$513 +88%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $335 +$206 +61%
Games Total: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $117 +$103 +88%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $371 −$360 -97%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $144 −$142 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $404 −$395 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $291 −$282 -97%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Team Heretics Academy (+1.5) Jun 13 $38 +$16 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $110 +$369 +336%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $181 +$251 +138%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $30 +$23 +76%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) Jun 13 $122 +$388 +317%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $152 −$149 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $271 −$266 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $253 −$246 -97%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $63 −$60 -95%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $28 −$27 -95%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$32 +40%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $238 +$227 +96%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $59 +$109 +184%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $68 −$66 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $851 +$367 +43%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $166 −$163 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $970 −$960 -99%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $128 −$13 -10%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $116 +$103 +89%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $471 −$454 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $941 +$152 +16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $209 −$203 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $214 −$206 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $302 −$295 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $122 +$247 +203%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $45 +$105 +233%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $20 +$25 +126%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 10 $108 −$107 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $13 −$13 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $47 −$45 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $41 +$179 +432%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $211 −$206 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $244 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 09 $167 −$162 -97%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $611 +$292 +48%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $270 +$129 +48%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $361 −$54 -15%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $325 +$147 +45%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $271 +$136 +50%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Sta Jun 08 $17 −$17 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) SELL Hokori 37¢ $3 1h
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 41¢ $192 1h
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) SELL Hokori 41¢ $5 1h
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 42¢ $334 1h
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 30¢ $5 2h
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $259 2h
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 30¢ $2 2h
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $129 2h
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 30¢ $1 2h
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $71 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series SELL MARKandLARRY 10¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 12¢ $35 18h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 60¢ $4 20h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $335 20h
Games Total: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $218 20h
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) SELL UCAM Esports Club 45¢ $6 20h
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) BUY UCAM Esports Club 46¢ $371 20h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 70¢ $1 22h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 71¢ $144 22h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 60¢ $5 22h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $404 22h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 51¢ $3 24h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 52¢ $221 24h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 51¢ $5 24h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 52¢ $361 24h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL Walczaki 46¢ $5 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 47¢ $291 28h
Games Total: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 48¢ $1 28h
Games Total: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $117 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 21¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $917.26 · official $917.26 (match) · 250 history records