trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +5.7% | -4.3% | 86% | 14% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +5.7% | -4.3% | 86% | 14% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 81% | 6% | -13.9% |
| all | 18 | -13.3% | -21.5% | 72% | 6% | -14.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.5% | 6% | -14.6% |
| 10% | -29.0% | 6% | -22.8% |
| 15% | -35.9% | 0% | -30.2% |
| 20% | -42.2% | 0% | -37.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $152 | $152 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $60 | $60 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | $22 | $22 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 83¢ | 82¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? | Jun 22 | $10 | +$3 | +28% |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Jun 22 | $20 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be 52°F or higher on May 21? | Jun 22 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies | Jun 22 | $20 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? | Jun 22 | $348 | $0 | +0% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees | Jun 22 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 22 | $519 | −$7 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 48°F or higher on April 2? | May 20 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on Apri | May 20 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | May 20 | $218 | +$7 | +3% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 01 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March? | Apr 01 | $50 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 01 | $50 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | Apr 01 | $137 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31? | Mar 31 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 31 | $130 | +$8 | +6% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 18? | Mar 18 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? | Mar 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |