Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
20 0x206a…fb8f politics 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$17
world 30% $0
politics 23% −$6
tech 8% −$2
finance 7% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% +$8
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -26.5% -33.5% 67% 33% -35.4%
≤30d 5 -12.5% -20.8% 80% 20% -22.5%
≤90d 29 -3.7% -12.8% 41% 3% -9.7%
all 29 -3.7% -12.8% 41% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$725) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage138d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $18 +$2 +10%
Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 5.5 May 24 $16 +$1 +7%
SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5 May 24 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 03 $23 −$6 -25%
Will "Project Hail Mary" be the highest grossing movie this weekend? Apr 02 $150 $0 +0%
Spread: CSD Cobán Imperial (-2.5) Apr 01 $10 $0 +3%
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers Mar 30 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 30 $5 $0 +10%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Mar 29 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 29 $1,399 $0 +0%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Mar 29 $25 $0 -2%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? Mar 29 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this Mar 29 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr Mar 29 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Mar 29 $18 −$1 -7%
Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary e Mar 29 $725 +$2 +0%
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Mar 29 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 29 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri Mar 29 $13 −$1 -7%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 29 $702 $0 -0%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $742 +$1 +0%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31? Mar 29 $12 $0 -4%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Mar 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Mar 29 $784 +$1 +0%
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Mar 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Mar 29 $734 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Mar 29 $761 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $16 1h
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $14 5d
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $18 13d
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 93¢ $18 21d
Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $16 29d
SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $15 56d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL Yes $1 72d
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 92¢ $723 77d
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 92¢ $240 77d
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 92¢ $480 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes $15 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes $17 77d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $197 77d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $479 77d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $21 77d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $654 77d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL Yes $20 77d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL Yes $5 77d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY Yes $20 77d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY Yes $5 77d
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? SELL Yes $8 77d
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? SELL Yes $4 77d
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? BUY Yes $13 77d
Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this SELL No 94¢ $756 77d
Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY No 94¢ $757 77d
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr SELL Yes $29 77d
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY Yes $32 77d
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 92¢ $759 77d
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 92¢ $760 77d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL Yes $17 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.00 · official $17.00 (match) · 103 history records