Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2067…d9b2 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate46%22W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$3
world 22% +$2
politics 14% −$1
crypto 12% +$1
sports 11% $0
tech 8% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 4 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 0% -7.6%
all 48 -5.1% -14.1% 46% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 2% -9.9%
10% -22.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses22 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage464d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $29 +$2 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $8 +$1 +6%
Will 'The Colors Within' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Year Award for May 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 13 $4 −$2 -35%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files? May 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 17 $3 −$2 -51%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +3%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 15 $12 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 17h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $31 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $29 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $10 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $18 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $10 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $19 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? BUY Yes $0 334d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $5 356d
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $2 358d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? BUY Yes $1 377d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? BUY Yes $2 377d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 SELL No 95¢ $6 377d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 BUY No 95¢ $6 378d
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 99¢ $6 379d
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 99¢ $6 380d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 87¢ $5 386d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $5 386d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $9 386d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? SELL No 99¢ $8 386d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 99¢ $8 387d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? SELL No 99¢ $9 387d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 99¢ $9 388d
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? BUY No 94¢ $8 393d
Will 'The Colors Within' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Year Award for SELL No 98¢ $9 393d
Will 'The Colors Within' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Year Award for BUY No 98¢ $9 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records