Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:31:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x2067…7350 sports 286 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,856 (-4%) realized −$4,854 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%172W / 112L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1,603est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,790
14 days−$6,697
30 days−$12,049
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$6,560
other 2% +$499
weather 0% −$24
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +12.2% +1.6% 50% 50% -23.9%
≤30d 161 +1.1% -8.5% 53% 53% -20.9%
≤90d 284 +2.3% -7.5% 61% 58% -13.3%
all 284 +2.3% -7.5% 61% 58% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 58% -13.3%
10% -16.3% 47% -21.6%
15% -24.4% 39% -29.2%
20% -31.8% 27% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$401 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$4,854
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses172 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,603
Open positions1
Markets (closed)284 / 286
History coverage87d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 50¢ 50¢ $176 $174 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $48 +$131 +276%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $117 −$115 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $59 +$58 +97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $871 −$813 -93%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $469 +$403 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $198 +$272 +137%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $202 −$6 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $881 −$867 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $810 −$800 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $204 +$252 +124%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $203 +$185 +91%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $202 +$74 +37%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $302 +$99 +33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$87 -85%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $305 +$300 +98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $809 +$533 +66%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $306 +$245 +80%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $509 +$760 +149%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $812 −$800 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $510 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 +$257 +126%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $304 +$204 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $354 −$350 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $404 +$199 +49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $202 −$58 -29%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $203 +$222 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $41 +$120 +294%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $203 −$192 -94%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $203 −$90 -44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $508 +$463 +91%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,502 −$1,482 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $709 −$700 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,455 +$1,063 +73%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $609 −$600 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $710 −$700 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $407 +$617 +152%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $508 −$415 -82%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $305 +$385 +126%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,067 +$1,120 +105%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $707 +$352 +50%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,021 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $503 +$106 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $179 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 26¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $117 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $117 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $59 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 4¢ $58 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $871 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $872 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $469 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $470 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 41¢ $198 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 66¢ $196 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $881 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 59¢ $810 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $36 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 68¢ $1,010 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $204 4d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $388 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 100¢ $276 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 99¢ $401 4d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FURIA 51¢ $203 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 72¢ $202 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 6¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 39¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 74¢ $302 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $605 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 65¢ $17 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $305 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $1,342 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $305 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.38 · official $174.38 (match) · 637 history records