Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2066…00b6 crypto 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-11%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%46W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$27
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +11.3% +0.7% 52% 41% -12.9%
≤30d 113 -14.3% -22.5% 41% 35% -24.4%
≤90d 113 -14.3% -22.5% 41% 35% -24.4%
all 113 -14.3% -22.5% 41% 35% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 35% -24.4%
10% -29.9% 32% -31.7%
15% -36.7% 26% -38.3%
20% -42.9% 18% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses46 / 67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage26d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $0 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 402 history records