trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-25%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 13 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 13 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $37 | +$1 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $58 | +$5 | +9% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $8 | $0 | -5% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $41 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 08 | $28 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 07 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $80 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $10 | −$4 | -36% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | Apr 15 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 | Apr 14 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | Mar 25 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? | Mar 03 | $8 | $0 | +5% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 25% | 0% | -8.1% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 22% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 22% | 0% | -8.4% |
| all | 17 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 47% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.7% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -19.3% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -27.1% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -34.2% | 0% | -33.1% |