Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2064…0ab1 other 503 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,209 (-4%) realized −$1,209 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%286W / 216L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$193
sports 18% −$649
crypto 16% −$703
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +27.8% +15.6% 100% 67% +16.0%
≤30d 3 +27.8% +15.6% 100% 67% +16.0%
≤90d 3 +27.8% +15.6% 100% 67% +16.0%
all 502 -8.3% -17.1% 57% 51% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 51% -14.6%
10% -25.0% 39% -22.7%
15% -32.3% 24% -30.2%
20% -38.9% 15% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$35 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses286 / 216
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)502 / 503
History coverage189d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 502 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 35¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+186%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 197 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $101 +$15 +15%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $60 +$40 +66%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $38 +$1 +2%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Jan 30 $439 −$439 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-30? Jan 30 $343 +$96 +28%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-24? Jan 27 $75 +$24 +32%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-24? Jan 27 $86 +$24 +28%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $100 +$10 +10%
Will PSV win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $91 +$19 +20%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-23? Jan 24 $44 +$16 +35%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-01-23? Jan 24 $185 +$35 +19%
Set 1 Winner: Gauff vs Baptiste Jan 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-01-22? Jan 23 $100 +$24 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Kopriva vs Fritz Jan 22 $15 +$4 +24%
Bouzkova vs. Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jan 22 $50 +$12 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Swiatek Jan 22 $52 +$10 +18%
Australian Open Women's: Katerina Siniakova vs Amanda Anisimova Jan 22 $75 +$25 +33%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $35 +$13 +37%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs Fucsovics Jan 21 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-01-19? Jan 20 $9 +$6 +59%
Australian Open Men's: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jan 20 $224 +$42 +19%
Set 1 Winner: Mochizuki vs Tsitsipas Jan 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Valentin Royer vs Taylor Fritz Jan 20 $50 +$14 +28%
Set 1 Winner: Royer vs Fritz Jan 20 $5 +$3 +53%
Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Juvan Jan 20 $12 +$3 +20%
Set 1 Winner: Sramkova vs Ostapenko Jan 20 $100 +$10 +10%
Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jan 20 $32 +$12 +37%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Raphael Collignon Jan 20 $100 +$58 +58%
Australian Open Women's: Julia Grabher vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jan 20 $11 +$8 +70%
Australian Open Women's: Leylah Fernandez vs Janice Tjen Jan 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Elise Mertens vs Lanlana Tararudee Jan 19 $35 +$10 +28%
Set 1 Winner: Mertens vs Tararudee Jan 19 $28 +$22 +82%
Australian Open Women's: Donna Vekic vs Mirra Andreeva Jan 19 $100 +$14 +14%
Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs Jones Jan 19 $5 +$2 +35%
Australian Open Women's: Dalma Galfi vs Clara Tauson Jan 19 $100 +$15 +15%
Australian Open Women's: Iva Jovic vs Katie Volynets Jan 19 $30 +$12 +38%
Set 1 Winner: Starodubtseva vs Tomljanovic Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Svitolina vs Bucsa Jan 19 $34 +$13 +37%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-01-18? Jan 19 $77 +$23 +30%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $110 +$58 +52%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $136 −$136 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Emma Raducanu Jan 18 $135 +$110 +82%
Australian Open Women's: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jan 18 $58 +$19 +33%
Australian Open Women's: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jan 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 55¢ $53 1h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $35 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $0 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $47 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $39 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $4 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $4 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $4 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $4 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $4 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $38 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $38 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $60 4h
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina BUY Sabalenka 61¢ $439 144d
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-30? SELL Yes 100¢ $439 144d
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $343 144d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 150d
Will PSV win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $75 150d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-24? BUY No 76¢ $75 150d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-24? SELL No 100¢ $110 150d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $86 150d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 150d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 150d
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-01-24? SELL No 76¢ $113 150d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-24? BUY No 83¢ $83 150d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-24? BUY No 83¢ $8 150d
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-01-24? BUY No 67¢ $100 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 1438 history records