Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2064…7ee8 crypto 1639 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$124 (+1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate90%1475W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day99.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$5
14 days+$65
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 532 +0.6% -9.0% 89% 47% -9.6%
≤30d 1639 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 33% -9.6%
≤90d 1639 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 33% -9.6%
all 1639 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 33% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 33% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 8% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1475 / 164
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1639 / 1639
History coverage19d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day99.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1639 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $17 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $12 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $17 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $17 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records