Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2061…c872 crypto 1373 markets active 5h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$202 (-1%) realized −$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate82%1122W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$129
14 days−$249
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$112
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -12.4% -20.8% 69% 69% -24.5%
≤30d 712 -4.7% -13.8% 76% 66% -12.0%
≤90d 1374 -2.2% -11.5% 82% 55% -10.3%
all 1374 -2.2% -11.5% 82% 55% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 55% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 21% -18.9%
15% -27.7% 10% -26.7%
20% -34.8% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1122 / 252
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1374 / 1373
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1374 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 37h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records