Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x2061…8ec9
other · 69 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$19,889 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18,806 · open −$3,946
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$117,226
Realized−$18,806
Unrealized−$3,946
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses11 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$213
Open positions81
Markets (closed)91 / 69
Avg bet$2,420
Trades / day162.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 81 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27,348
7 days−$27,415
14 days−$42,672
30 days−$18,806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $22,040 $21,664 −$376 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 82¢ $11,212 $13,199 +$1,988 (+18%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 10¢ 28¢ $3,682 $10,267 +$6,585 (+179%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $6,495 $6,088 −$407 (-6%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 47¢ 36¢ $7,401 $5,785 −$1,615 (-22%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 44¢ 31¢ $8,159 $5,715 −$2,444 (-30%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 26¢ 20¢ $7,216 $5,376 −$1,840 (-25%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 44¢ $5,261 $5,314 +$53 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $2,956 $5,260 +$2,304 (+78%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 40¢ $3,351 $5,035 +$1,684 (+50%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $4,346 $4,348 +$2 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3,647 $3,625 −$21 (-1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $2,666 $3,031 +$365 (+14%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 25¢ 23¢ $2,544 $2,300 −$244 (-10%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 22¢ 24¢ $2,059 $2,242 +$183 (+9%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 82¢ 19¢ $9,291 $2,125 −$7,166 (-77%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? No 90¢ 91¢ $2,004 $2,030 +$25 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1,468 $1,454 −$14 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 9¢ 10¢ $1,122 $1,283 +$161 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $920 $1,229 +$308 (+33%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $1,203 $1,132 −$72 (-6%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 28¢ 30¢ $933 $1,017 +$83 (+9%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $978 $967 −$11 (-1%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $813 $807 −$6 (-1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 56¢ 64¢ $622 $717 +$94 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $666 −$666 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$708 -292%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$666 -274%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 12 $2,667 −$2,667 -100%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$666 -274%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $666 −$666 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $666 −$666 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $5,366 −$4,484 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $666 −$666 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$666 -274%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$666 -274%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$666 -274%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $666 −$666 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $665 −$665 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $666 −$666 -100%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$676 -278%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$925 -381%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $666 −$666 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $304 −$304 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 12 $1,323 −$2,728 -206%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $3,950 −$3,912 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$666 -274%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$1,657 -683%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$666 -274%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $11,120 −$4,378 -39%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$666 -274%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 12 $3,138 −$2,403 -77%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $4,578 −$4,339 -95%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 12 $434 −$434 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $260 −$269 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $1,778 −$1,778 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$8,708
politics 36% +$14,285
tech 8% −$4,477
sports 5% −$1,280
world 5% +$6,273
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 32¢ $8 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 32¢ $143 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY No 87¢ $968 31m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY No 92¢ $1,023 31m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $101 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $101 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $8 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $0 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $3 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $4 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $4 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $1 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $171 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $433 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $59 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 32¢ $1 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 32¢ $96 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY No 21¢ $944 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-52.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -90.8% -91.7% 5% 3% -21.5%
≤30d 91 -47.5% -52.5% 12% 11% -20.6%
≤90d 91 -47.5% -52.5% 12% 11% -20.6%
all 91 -47.5% -52.5% 12% 11% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover162.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.5% 11% -20.6%
10% -57.0% 11% -28.2%
15% ← realistic here -61.2% 9% -35.1%
20% -65.0% 8% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117,226.16 · official $118,376.09 (match) · 3500 history records