Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
20 0x2061…0187 other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$342 (+12%) realized +$344 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$521
sports 27% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -2.6% -11.9% 61% 46% +2.6%
≤30d 28 -2.6% -11.9% 61% 46% +2.6%
≤90d 28 -2.6% -11.9% 61% 46% +2.6%
all 28 -2.6% -11.9% 61% 46% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 46% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 25% -7.2%
15% -28.0% 25% -16.2%
20% -35.1% 25% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$49 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized+$344
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)28 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 27¢ 26¢ $81 $80 −$2 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? No 57¢ 57¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $63 $61 −$2 (-3%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 29¢ 30¢ $41 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 38¢ 38¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $29 +$52 +180%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $69 +$11 +16%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $68 +$13 +18%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 28 $132 +$88 +67%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $214 +$26 +12%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $184 +$16 +9%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $104 +$16 +15%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $216 +$24 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $167 +$173 +103%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $32 −$32 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 27 $46 −$46 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $108 −$108 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 27 $147 +$13 +9%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $70 +$10 +14%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? Jun 27 $147 +$13 +9%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $48 +$32 +67%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $102 +$218 +212%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $50 +$110 +223%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Jun 27 $146 +$14 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $106 +$54 +52%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $58 −$58 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $69 −$69 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $15 1m
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $53 1m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 29¢ $41 7m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $63 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $23 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $83 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY No 84¢ $68 37h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY No 86¢ $69 37h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 39¢ $32 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $12 37h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $29 38h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $46 39h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $1 39h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $10 39h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $28 39h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $37 39h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $30 39h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $2 39h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $25 39h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $124 39h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $8 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $115 39h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY No 89¢ $19 39h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY No 89¢ $40 39h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY No 89¢ $81 39h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY No 89¢ $8 39h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY No 89¢ $40 39h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY No 89¢ $24 39h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY No 90¢ $18 40h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY No 90¢ $17 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.80 · official $273.80 (match) · 83 history records