Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x205c…9192
sports · 15 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$9,847 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,600 · open +$3,233
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$32,857
Realized−$16,600
Unrealized+$3,233
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$866
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage17d
Avg bet$7,486
Trades / day117.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 4 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2,661
30 days−$16,600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19,340 $19,359 +$19 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7,404 $8,638 +$1,234 (+17%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,880 $4,860 +$1,980 (+69%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif Jun 01 $2,661 −$2,661 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $5,028 −$5,028 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 30 $5,989 −$5,989 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 29 $12,489 +$5,444 +44%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? May 29 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 29 $2,481 −$2,481 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $9,965 +$15,222 +153%
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia May 29 $160 −$160 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 29 $1,941 −$1,941 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $4,990 −$4,990 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $13,000 −$13,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$15,584
other 30% +$2,216
crypto 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 39m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $414 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $116 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $45 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 3h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $45 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,500 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 7h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-67.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -64.0% -67.4% 18% 18% -34.7%
≤90d 11 -64.0% -67.4% 18% 18% -34.7%
all 11 -64.0% -67.4% 18% 18% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover117.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.4% 18% -34.7%
10% -70.5% 18% -40.9%
15% ← realistic here -73.4% 18% -46.6%
20% -76.0% 9% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,856.64 · official $32,856.64 (match) · 2039 history records