Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2059…5d58 crypto 208 markets active 14h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%96W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$17
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$2
sports 24% −$15
other 19% −$10
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.1% -8.5% 52% 36% -10.5%
≤30d 208 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 38% -14.1%
≤90d 208 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 38% -14.1%
all 208 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 38% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 38% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 29% -22.3%
15% -28.0% 20% -29.8%
20% -35.0% 16% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses96 / 112
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 208
History coverage27d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 754 history records