Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x2059…4d1f
other · 170 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$528 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$564 · open −$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$144
Realized+$564
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses84 / 79
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)163 / 170
History coverage154d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 5 History 163 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$334
7 days−$334
14 days−$339
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 65¢ 46¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $34 +$2 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $239 −$239 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$67 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
France leading at halftime? Jun 06 $20 +$12 +57%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $70 −$30 -43%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $131 +$72 +54%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $101 +$65 +64%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 May 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-08? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $12 +$51 +413%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 +$17 +84%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $76 +$87 +114%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $5 +$3 +70%
Will FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? May 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-05-03? May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $123 +$197 +160%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 +$34 +165%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $10 +$35 +344%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 02 $18 −$15 -83%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 +$7 +132%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 30 $61 +$93 +152%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bradley Barcola: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $50 +$43 +86%
Brentford FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 68% +$800
sports 20% +$12
crypto 7% −$231
world 3% −$36
weather 1% −$13
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $20 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $36 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $34 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND W BUY 40¢ $25 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Côte BUY 17¢ $5 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $20 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 9d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $25 9d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Moise Kouame 45¢ $30 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 16d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 32¢ $10 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Elsa Jacquemot 8¢ $5 16d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 17d
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 18d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 20d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 20d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -49.2% -54.0% 25% 19% -62.3%
≤30d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 41% -21.3%
≤90d 123 -20.4% -28.0% 37% 36% -5.3%
all 163 +0.6% -9.0% 52% 47% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 47% +2.7%
10% -17.7% 45% -7.1%
15% -25.6% 45% -16.1%
20% -32.9% 39% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.28 · official $169.28 · 422 history records