Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2058…bfd1 crypto 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$101 (-4%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%76W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$16
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$108
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 +1.6% -8.0% 56% 53% -9.4%
≤30d 130 -1.2% -10.6% 52% 49% -10.7%
≤90d 161 -2.9% -12.1% 47% 43% -13.3%
all 161 -2.9% -12.1% 47% 43% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 43% -13.3%
10% -20.5% 40% -21.6%
15% -28.2% 30% -29.2%
20% -35.2% 23% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses76 / 85
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)161 / 161
History coverage66d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 161 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $62 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $38 +$23 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$33 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$28 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $48 −$10 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$11 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $46 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$10 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $19 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 642 history records