Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2052…df17 crypto 491 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,781 (-18%) realized −$11,781 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%239W / 450L
Whale WR28%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 101d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,744
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 351 -56.9% -61.0% 22% 22% -94.5%
≤30d 351 -56.9% -61.0% 22% 22% -94.5%
≤90d 420 -44.7% -50.0% 28% 28% -78.5%
all 689 -32.9% -39.3% 35% 35% -51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.3% 35% -51.1%
10% ← realistic here -45.1% 35% -55.8%
15% -50.4% 35% -60.1%
20% -55.3% 35% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 28% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$171 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,781
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses239 / 450
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)689 / 491
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$135
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 689 Trades
no open positions (450 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $419 −$419 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $442 −$442 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $440 −$440 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $432 −$432 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $1,895 −$1,895 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $440 −$440 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $432 −$432 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $440 −$440 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $884 −$884 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records