Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2051…b02c world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$9
other 22% +$1
crypto 9% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -13.6% -21.9% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 12 -3.8% -13.0% 42% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 12 -3.8% -13.0% 42% 0% -11.8%
all 32 -2.6% -11.9% 59% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -10.5%
10% -20.3% 3% -19.1%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage461d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -25%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $25 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $66 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $31 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $38 −$7 -19%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 27 $5 $0 +8%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 23 $5 $0 +5%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr May 23 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 26 $13 $0 -2%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 15 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $32 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 13h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 16d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $14 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $18 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $20 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $12 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $35 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $35 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $13 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $19 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $31 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $21 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.78 · official $30.78 (match) · 86 history records