Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x204f…ba2c sports 1089 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (929 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$5,327 (+73%) realized +$5,338 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +119% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate77%511W / 154L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day929.2pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$462
other 39% +$224
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (929 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+98.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 665 +118.9% +98.0% 77% 51% +5.5%
≤30d 665 +118.9% +98.0% 77% 51% +5.5%
≤90d 665 +118.9% +98.0% 77% 51% +5.5%
all 665 +118.9% +98.0% 77% 51% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover929.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +98.0% 51% +5.5%
10% ← realistic here +79.1% 41% -4.6%
15% +61.8% 35% -13.8%
20% +45.9% 32% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +119% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +94% → late +143% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.86 per $1 lost it wins $6.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2,234
Realized+$5,338
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses511 / 154
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions369
Markets (closed)665 / 1089
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day929.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 369 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
AA Ponte Preta vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 97¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 2.5 Under 97¢ 98¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C UCAM Esports Club 75¢ 78¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 98¢ 94¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Korea Republic? No 96¢ 95¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Criciúma EC (-1.5) América FC 87¢ 86¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Tirante vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 21.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Scotland to score first vs. Brazil? No 77¢ 76¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Under 36¢ 36¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Under 97¢ 98¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first? No 96¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? No 94¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Netherlands? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Under 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Iraq to win the second half? No 94¢ 95¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? No 97¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Under 96¢ 97¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? No 97¢ 97¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Netherlands? No 97¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Colombia 98¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
CA Huracán vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $3 +$2 +59%
SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $4 +$1 +18%
Spread: CD La Serena (-2.5) Jun 22 $2 +$1 +42%
Madrid: Zsombor Piros vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 22 $2 +$2 +89%
Rainbow Six Siege: KINOTROPE gaming vs CAG Osaka - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $0 +$3 +2210%
Hugo Ekitike: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 22 $2 +$1 +54%
Derrick Jones Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1 +$1 +75%
Set 1 Winner: Tormo vs Korpatsch Jun 22 $1 +$1 +144%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1 +$1 +96%
Will RB Ōmiya Ardija win on 2026-04-12? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +117%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs ODDIK Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $2 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Jun 22 $1 +$1 +170%
Yibing Wu vs. Stefan Dostanic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1 +$1 +178%
UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 22 $1 +$5 +420%
LoL: Misa Esports vs BIG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $0 +$1 +203%
Dota 2: Ivory vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Jun 22 $1 +$3 +383%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $0 +$1 +734%
Will CA Grau win on 2026-04-22? Jun 22 $0 +$1 +2400%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 22 $0 +$1 +363%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $1 +$1 +84%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 22 $1 +$1 +185%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $0 $0 +108%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $0 +$1 +321%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $0 +$1 +226%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +166%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 22 $0 +$2 +553%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 22 $0 +$1 +263%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 22 $0 $0 +145%
FK Teplice vs. FK Dukla Praha: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $0 +$1 +498%
Ismaila Sarr: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 22 $0 +$2 +425%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 22 $1 $0 +43%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Lavked (+1.5) Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2022%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $1 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Tricked (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Online St Jun 22 $0 +$1 +494%
Spread: Stade Brestois 29 (-1.5) Jun 22 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $0 +$1 +442%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs Misa Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $0 +$3 +814%
ITF Gyula: Nico Hipfl vs John Sperle Jun 22 $0 +$7 +2733%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 22 $0 +$1 +172%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 22 $0 +$4 +996%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $0 $0 +98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $0 $0 +114%
Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $0 +$2 +331%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. KT Wiz Jun 22 $0 $0 +81%
Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5) Jun 22 $0 +$3 +844%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 22 $0 +$2 +753%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 22 $0 +$1 +211%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $0 $0 +71%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $15 1m
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL OXEN 47¢ $7 2m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 4m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 4m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 4m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 4m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 4m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 4m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 4m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $10 4m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 6¢ $0 4m
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $0 5m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 19¢ $1 8m
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY No 67¢ $10 8m
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 33¢ $5 9m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $10 9m
Mona Barthel vs. Lin Zhu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 38¢ $1 10m
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 36¢ $1 13m
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $4 14m
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 68¢ $4 14m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $5 18m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 18m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? SELL No 98¢ $1 20m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? BUY No 97¢ $14 22m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 22m
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? BUY No 2¢ $0 23m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alice Tubello vs Elena Pridankina BUY Alice Tubello 29¢ $0 26m
Set Handicap: McDonald (-1.5) vs Alves (+1.5) SELL Alves 100¢ $17 43m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 77¢ $12 44m
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY No 93¢ $14 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,233.73 · official $2,200.49 · 3500 history records