Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x204e…795e other 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%19W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$12
14 days−$21
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$25
politics 23% −$8
sports 22% −$19
crypto 11% −$21
economics 4% $0
world 3% −$5
culture 3% −$3
finance 3% −$1
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.4% 18% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 68 -0.9% -10.4% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 121 -0.7% -10.2% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 149 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses19 / 130
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage106d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $326 −$4 -1%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $43 $0 -1%
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $334 $0 +0%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -3%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $287 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $53 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $53 +$1 +2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $45 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $67 −$4 -6%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $118 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $209 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 04 $57 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $41 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $100 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 02 $62 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $341 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $118 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $44 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $87 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $170 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $93 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $45 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $61 47m
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 9h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $48 9h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $48 17h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $42 18h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $44 24h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $38 25h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $38 33h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $42 33h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $43 40h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $46 41h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $33 2d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $24 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $55 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $56 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $67 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $67 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $20 3d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $21 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.70 · official $60.70 (match) · 515 history records