Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x204c…b31d
weather · 127 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$84 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$81 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses52 / 73
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage67d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$113
14 days−$352
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Indiana Fever 79¢ 76¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Dallas Wings 69¢ 60¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 2? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 6? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 6? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 10? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 9? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on June 4? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 7? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 3? No 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on June 4? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 6? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $121 +$68 +56%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Will "Data Center" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All Jun 13 $11 +$11 +98%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $20 +$4 +21%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $20 +$5 +24%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $20 +$5 +24%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Jerusalem Jun 11 $10 +$4 +37%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$49 +474%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 11 $20 +$5 +23%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Criollos de Caguas vs. Mets de Guaynabo Jun 11 $20 +$5 +26%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $161 +$56 +34%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $101 +$62 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$28 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$25 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$18 +179%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 10? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 10? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 9? Jun 08 $118 −$115 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 8? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? Jun 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 6? Jun 07 $41 +$103 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$8 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $41 +$62 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 7? Jun 06 $52 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? Jun 06 $21 +$38 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 6? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 6? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 6? Jun 05 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $62 −$60 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $19 +$6 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 65% −$219
sports 20% +$50
crypto 8% −$44
other 6% +$110
world 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 79¢ $20 1h
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona SELL Barcelona 100¢ $189 1h
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 63¢ $121 14h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $13 14h
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan BUY Viktorija Golubic 72¢ $101 33h
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban BUY BC Zenit 81¢ $30 36h
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire BUY Dallas Wings 69¢ $20 36h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 39h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 76¢ $10 2d
Will "Data Center" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All BUY No 49¢ $11 2d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Jerusalem BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 72¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 2d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY FC Bayern Munchen 82¢ $20 2d
Valencia vs. Joventut BUY Valencia 79¢ $20 2d
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia BUY Olimpia Milano 81¢ $20 2d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY Barcelona 84¢ $20 2d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 80¢ $20 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 80¢ $20 2d
Criollos de Caguas vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Criollos de Caguas 79¢ $20 3d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 70¢ $20 3d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 77¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 99¢ $217 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $161 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 98¢ $163 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $101 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -0.9% -10.4% 50% 50% -17.6%
≤30d 119 -18.3% -26.1% 39% 38% -12.6%
≤90d 125 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 41% -12.0%
all 125 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 41% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 41% -12.0%
10% -27.8% 39% -20.5%
15% -34.7% 30% -28.1%
20% -41.1% 28% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.61 · official $36.61 (match) · 238 history records