Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x204c…0aa3 other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%23W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$25
14 days−$34
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$25
politics 22% −$13
sports 19% +$2
crypto 10% −$8
culture 7% −$19
economics 6% −$6
world 4% +$2
tech 3% −$4
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.9% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 74 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 120 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 0% -10.0%
all 144 -0.4% -9.9% 16% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses23 / 121
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage106d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 96¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $228 −$11 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 16 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $19 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $531 −$4 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $57 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $44 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $46 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $98 −$2 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $63 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $40 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $161 −$1 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 10 $65 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $56 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $45 −$1 -2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $128 −$2 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $58 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $54 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $211 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $52 $0 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $212 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $219 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $38 50m
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $8 53m
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $56 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $56 8h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $44 9h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 17h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $57 17h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $56 24h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $19 25h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $19 32h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $37 33h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $38 41h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $41 41h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $41 47h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $54 2d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $44 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $44 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $52 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $52 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $46 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $46 4d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $65 4d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $66 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.21 · official $45.18 (match) · 557 history records