Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
20 0x204b…66ba crypto 1749 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,922 (+2%) realized +$1,922 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1731W / 24L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$209
14 days−$368
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$681
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 333 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 1% -10.7%
≤30d 1356 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 1% -9.6%
≤90d 1755 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 1% -9.1%
all 1755 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 1% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$49 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,922
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1731 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1755 / 1749
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1755 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$4 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $46 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $44 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $49 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $46 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records