Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:10:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x204b…f3c9 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$599 (-25%) realized −$599 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$59
14 days−$593
30 days−$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$231
sports 39% −$354
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -32.7% -39.1% 38% 38% -24.7%
≤30d 19 -51.1% -55.7% 21% 21% -63.8%
≤90d 19 -51.1% -55.7% 21% 21% -63.8%
all 36 -30.8% -37.4% 33% 31% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 31% -31.7%
10% -43.4% 28% -38.2%
15% -48.9% 25% -44.2%
20% -53.9% 17% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$49 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$599
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage154d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$18 +35%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 +$39 +76%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$9 -45%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $51 −$34 -66%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $31 +$89 +291%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $99 −$98 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $189 −$187 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $50 +$115 +229%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $50 −$17 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $100 −$62 -62%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jan 21 $100 +$42 +42%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Jan 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jan 21 $111 +$89 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jan 21 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5) Jan 20 $210 +$39 +19%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $100 +$49 +49%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $100 −$64 -64%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $100 +$59 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 94¢ $68 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $50 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $10 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $20 5d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) SELL Portugal 9¢ $18 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $101 6d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 25¢ $51 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 7d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 7d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 7d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $48 7d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 8d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 67¢ $50 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 62¢ $99 9d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 69¢ $101 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $189 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 10d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $81 151d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $33 151d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $36 151d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $50 151d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 36¢ $84 151d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $92 151d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $50 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records