Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x204b…8ca3
finance · 190 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$74 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$452 · open −$65
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY finance specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,547
Realized+$452
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses118 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions19
Markets (closed)240 / 190
History coverage15d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day189.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 19 History 240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days+$74
14 days+$16
30 days+$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $314 $358 +$44 (+14%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Up 71¢ 71¢ $201 $203 +$1 (+1%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 12? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $179 $187 +$8 (+4%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 12? No 91¢ 98¢ $166 $179 +$13 (+8%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? Yes 79¢ 96¢ $118 $144 +$26 (+22%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Up 63¢ 90¢ $76 $109 +$33 (+43%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? No 78¢ 82¢ $97 $103 +$6 (+6%)
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Up 60¢ 86¢ $58 $83 +$25 (+43%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? No 60¢ 64¢ $39 $42 +$3 (+6%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? No 86¢ 98¢ $31 $36 +$4 (+13%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-12%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Down 71¢ 29¢ $53 $22 −$32 (-59%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? No 13¢ 20¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+55%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 8 2026? Yes 24¢ 4¢ $96 $14 −$82 (-86%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? Yes 53¢ 71¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Up 20¢ 4¢ $40 $8 −$32 (-81%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Yes 40¢ 2¢ $64 $4 −$60 (-94%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 12? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? Down 34¢ 10¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-71%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 12? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-82%)
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 6? Down 27¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 4? Down 30¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 26? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? No 26¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 6? Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 4? Jun 12 $24 +$17 +70%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 26? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 18? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 22? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 15? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 12 $41 −$7 -17%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26? Jun 12 $20 −$11 -55%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 5? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 4? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 7? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 5? Jun 12 $5 +$46 +977%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 1? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 27? Jun 12 $39 −$49 -126%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13? Jun 12 $68 +$146 +214%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 20? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 28? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12? Jun 12 $1 +$38 +6992%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 13? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 19? Jun 12 $15 −$5 -33%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? Jun 12 $2 +$45 +2458%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 19? Jun 12 $8 −$43 -574%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 27? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 5? Jun 12 $38 +$14 +36%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 5? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 19? Jun 12 $5 +$46 +1024%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on May 13? Jun 12 $56 −$13 -24%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 13? Jun 12 $34 −$15 -45%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 8? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 13? Jun 12 $19 −$28 -149%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 6? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? Jun 12 $13 +$79 +593%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 4? Jun 12 $35 +$21 +62%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 4? Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on May 27? Jun 12 $25 −$20 -79%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 20? Jun 12 $9 +$23 +246%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 7? Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 4? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 8? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 20? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22? Jun 12 $2 +$70 +4546%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 1? Jun 12 $115 −$138 -119%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 18? Jun 12 $90 −$148 -165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 68% +$206
other 32% +$1,372
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 75¢ $38 10m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $2 13m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $34 16m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 70¢ $3 17m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 72¢ $144 43m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $3 48m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 64¢ $3 53m
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 73¢ $9 57m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? SELL Yes 87¢ $172 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? SELL Yes 56¢ $55 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $40 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 70¢ $35 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 70¢ $18 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 69¢ $68 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 70¢ $11 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? SELL Yes 42¢ $41 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? BUY No 80¢ $80 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? BUY No 3¢ $1 2h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY Yes 53¢ $57 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY No 50¢ $19 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $51 2h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 34¢ $9 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 2h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 59¢ $17 2h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 62¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 +78.1% +61.2% 47% 36% -9.7%
≤30d 240 +68.4% +52.4% 49% 40% -8.6%
≤90d 240 +68.4% +52.4% 49% 40% -8.6%
all 240 +68.4% +52.4% 49% 40% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover189.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.4% 40% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here +37.8% 30% -17.4%
15% +24.5% 25% -25.4%
20% +12.3% 20% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,546.74 · official $1,546.25 (match) · 3500 history records