Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x2048…f191
other · 191 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$100 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$85 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses74 / 112
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)186 / 191
History coverage112d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 5 History 186 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$12
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-2%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 38¢ 56¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+49%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? No 39¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Liverpool FC 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Paris Saint-Germain FC 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$6 +144%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$7 +206%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$8 -85%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$8 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11 +$14 +134%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$8 +219%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$4 +41%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$5 +125%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $27 −$2 -7%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5 +$8 +153%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 03 $1 $0 -17%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $5 −$4 -85%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $11 −$10 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $10 +$20 +197%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $12 +$18 +146%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $14 +$26 +188%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $10 +$10 +93%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $23 +$13 +55%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $10 +$11 +114%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 +$15 +151%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% +$128
sports 25% −$6
crypto 9% −$37
world 1% +$7
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 38¢ $4 20m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $4 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $4 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $10 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $3 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $5 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 4h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $8 5h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 5¢ $1 5h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $9 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $6 17h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $9 17h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 33¢ $2 26h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 33¢ $2 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 40h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 26¢ $5 47h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 26¢ $0 47h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $5 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $12 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $4 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $11 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $9 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 94¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.4% -8.3% 42% 42% -13.9%
≤30d 29 -2.5% -11.8% 38% 38% -23.2%
≤90d 137 -28.0% -34.8% 26% 26% -26.8%
all 186 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 40% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 40% -4.1%
10% -18.7% 39% -13.2%
15% -26.5% 38% -21.6%
20% -33.7% 36% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.21 · official $37.21 (match) · 419 history records