Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:22:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
20 0x2047…0166 crypto 379 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$348 (-11%) realized −$356 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%192W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$221
other 7% −$13
world 5% −$24
culture 3% +$3
tech 3% −$33
politics 3% +$12
sports 3% −$32
economics 2% −$39
weather 0% −$4
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +15.4% +4.4% 67% 56% -3.2%
≤30d 36 +15.4% +4.4% 67% 56% -3.2%
≤90d 84 -2.5% -11.8% 56% 48% -9.6%
all 375 -9.5% -18.1% 51% 47% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 47% -20.5%
10% -25.9% 42% -28.1%
15% -33.1% 33% -35.0%
20% -39.7% 23% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$356
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses192 / 183
Open positions4
Markets (closed)375 / 379
History coverage158d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No 60¢ 96¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+60%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 81¢ 78¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +25%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$14 +257%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 05 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 22 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 22 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 22 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 22 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 22 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 22 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 22 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 22 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.34 · official $75.53 · 1085 history records