Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2045…c77c sports 1178 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$691 (-1%) realized −$611 · open −$80
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%710W / 465L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$716est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$586now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,612
7 days−$1,855
14 days−$1,498
30 days−$2,395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$178
other 34% −$1,644
crypto 0% +$26
finance 0% −$4
politics 0% +$37
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +5.0% -5.0% 65% 63% -21.4%
≤30d 281 -0.1% -9.6% 58% 55% -15.5%
≤90d 1015 -3.9% -13.1% 60% 56% -9.8%
all 1175 -3.9% -13.0% 60% 56% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 56% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 38% -18.2%
15% -28.9% 23% -26.1%
20% -35.9% 14% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$60 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$586
Realized−$611
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses710 / 465
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$716
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1175 / 1178
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $600 $550 −$50 (-8%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Over 67¢ 54¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-19%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 40¢ 16¢ $40 $16 −$24 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $451 −$10 -2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $686 −$686 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 21 $8 −$7 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $537 +$57 +11%
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $45 +$55 +122%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Jun 21 $147 +$53 +36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,358 −$2,347 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $164 +$36 +22%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $253 +$47 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $52 +$115 +219%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $247 +$53 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $37 −$5 -15%
Alexander Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $90 +$110 +121%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $88 +$12 +13%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $93 −$92 -98%
Linda Noskova vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $146 −$145 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,766 +$234 +13%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $1 $0 +42%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $775 +$225 +29%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $129 +$91 +70%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 19 $209 +$91 +43%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $607 +$392 +64%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $167 +$33 +20%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $107 +$93 +87%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$15 -15%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $51 −$3 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $142 −$141 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $967 +$313 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $147 +$53 +36%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $238 +$62 +26%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $80 +$20 +25%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $164 +$37 +23%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $257 +$94 +37%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $177 +$23 +13%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $79 +$21 +27%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $53 +$47 +89%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $310 +$90 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $268 +$105 +39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $370 +$90 +24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $547 −$533 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $75 +$25 +33%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 +$140 +262%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $153 +$8 +5%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $73 +$27 +38%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $47 −$46 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 81¢ $441 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $451 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 6h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $618 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $686 12h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 71¢ $8 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $594 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $537 19h
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $16 23h
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $18 23h
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $1 23h
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $2 24h
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $1 24h
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $1 24h
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $4 24h
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $2 24h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Adam Walton 73¢ $41 24h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Adam Walton 73¢ $105 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,358 31h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 53¢ $167 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 35h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 82¢ $15 36h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 82¢ $137 36h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 82¢ $12 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 32¢ $31 37h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $253 37h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 46¢ $93 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $37 47h
Alexander Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $65 47h
Alexander Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $25 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $586.30 · official $586.30 (match) · 3500 history records