Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2044…0d31 world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$18
sports 25% +$2
other 25% +$3
politics 10% −$4
finance 2% −$1
tech 2% +$4
crypto 1% +$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 32% 5% -10.5%
≤90d 36 +55.7% +40.8% 31% 8% -9.6%
all 50 +38.2% +25.1% 36% 14% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.1% 14% -9.9%
10% +13.1% 10% -18.5%
15% +2.2% 8% -26.4%
20% -7.8% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +77% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage530d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 74¢ 72¢ $27 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $27 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $27 −$1 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $28 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $113 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $68 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $29 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $25 +$4 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $78 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $21 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $38 −$9 -24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $18 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $3 $0 +4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $19 $0 -1%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $67 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $37 +$10 +28%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $58 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $49 +$4 +9%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $221 −$2 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $159 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $221 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $221 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhau Mar 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics Feb 13 $9 +$3 +41%
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards Feb 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 5? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 05 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the Chiefs beat the Texans by 9 or more points? Feb 03 $3 +$3 +113%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fox News Oval Office inter Feb 03 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 23 $14 $0 -1%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-06? Jan 08 $6 +$8 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $23 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $19 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $3 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $24 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $16 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $10 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $5 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $22 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $28 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $28 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $20 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $8 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.07 · official $26.64 (match) · 177 history records