Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x203e…b995 politics 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%85W / 5L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$2
other 17% $0
crypto 12% +$2
culture 12% −$1
weather 5% $0
finance 2% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 28 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 90 +0.3% -9.2% 94% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses85 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage543d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 1? Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 27 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 22? May 29 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15? May 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 18? May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 17? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 7? May 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 5? May 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 4? May 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 3? May 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? May 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 26? May 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 25? May 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 02 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on April 24? Apr 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 23? Apr 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 13°C on April 21? Apr 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 16? Apr 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 16? Apr 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 15? Apr 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? Apr 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12? Apr 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $95 on April 7? Apr 10 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Apr 07 $75 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20? Mar 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 03 $107 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in January? Feb 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on October 22? Nov 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on October 15? Oct 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 15? Oct 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the October meeting? Oct 14 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 14 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 14 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Trump rename Greenland 'Red, White, and Blueland' before July? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Bill allowing Trump 3rd term passes House before June? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 16? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
FDA revokes polio vaccine in Trump's first 100 days? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
Trump pauses all reciprocal tariffs other than China before Wednesday? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Apr 26 $13 $0 +0%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? Apr 07 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Apr 07 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $50 29d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $57 37d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $17 43d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $14 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $29 43d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $48 51d
Will Solana reach $140 in May? BUY No 99¢ $51 51d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $56 56d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 5? BUY No 99¢ $17 56d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $33 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $22 63d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $34 63d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $24 65d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $16 65d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 13°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $19 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $17 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $27 68d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 73d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $13 73d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $22 73d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of April 13 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $18 78d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $54 78d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 99¢ $42 78d
Will Solana reach $95 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $102 81d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 95d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 95d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $75 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20? BUY No 100¢ $37 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.95 · official $89.95 (match) · 184 history records