Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:26:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x203c…1113 crypto 1524 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$292 (-6%) realized −$288 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%658W / 860L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$73
14 days−$53
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$328
sports 4% −$63
other 3% +$37
politics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -61.0% -64.8% 14% 13% -61.0%
≤30d 205 -24.7% -31.9% 27% 26% -31.6%
≤90d 1518 -6.7% -15.6% 43% 35% -16.6%
all 1518 -6.7% -15.6% 43% 35% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 35% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 30% -24.6%
15% -31.0% 26% -31.9%
20% -37.8% 24% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$288
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses658 / 860
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1518 / 1524
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1518 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-65%)
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 32¢ 47¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +397%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -78%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $1 48m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Eintracht Spandau 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.40 · official $7.40 (match) · 3500 history records