Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x203a…935f sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$68 (+10%) realized +$69 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$21
other 39% +$10
weather 9% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 57% -9.3%
≤30d 7 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 57% -9.3%
≤90d 7 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 57% -9.3%
all 7 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 57% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 57% -9.3%
10% -24.4% 57% -18.0%
15% -31.7% 43% -25.9%
20% -38.4% 29% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $194 $191 −$3 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Inner Circle Esports 71¢ 70¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23? No 69¢ 72¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B FOKUS 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group B ECHO 59¢ 60¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$7 +72%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$23 +76%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.44 · official $439.44 (match) · 21 history records