Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x2038…b0e7 other 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,640 (+1%) realized +$1,640 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%30W / 122L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$1,245per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$34
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$53
politics 31% −$73
sports 12% +$1,740
culture 5% −$9
world 4% +$5
economics 3% −$4
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 41 +2.2% -7.6% 10% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 84 +3.0% -6.8% 8% 6% -8.4%
all 152 +1.5% -8.2% 20% 13% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 13% -8.8%
10% -17.0% 12% -17.5%
15% -25.0% 10% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,684) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$8 · ×10.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,640
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses30 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 152
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,245
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 152 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $3,735 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,933 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $2,012 −$3 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $230 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $946 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 15 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $813 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,751 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $722 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 13 $203 +$4 +2%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,306 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,847 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,072 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,116 −$4 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 08 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $661 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $717 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $46 +$70 +152%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,071 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,892 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,793 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $3,051 −$5 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $47 +$66 +140%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $833 +$2 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $4,126 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,966 −$4 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,089 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,196 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,626 −$3 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $1,442 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $61 +$67 +109%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,495 −$2 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $2,948 −$4 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,822 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 20 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $4,054 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $470 7m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $470 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $415 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $416 3h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $438 2d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $439 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $229 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $230 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $455 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $456 4d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $966 4d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $967 4d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $944 5d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $946 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $863 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $864 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $690 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $692 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $812 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $813 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $949 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $950 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $721 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $722 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $203 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $829 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $830 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $960 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $961 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $977 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 480 history records