Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
20 0x2038…0472 crypto 1499 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$90 (+0%) realized +$86 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%792W / 703L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day56.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$19
14 days−$106
30 days−$1,479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$957
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 627 -0.8% -10.2% 53% 53% -10.3%
≤30d 1244 -4.2% -13.4% 52% 52% -15.9%
≤90d 1495 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 53% -12.6%
all 1495 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 53% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 53% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 53% -21.0%
15% -27.8% 53% -28.6%
20% -34.9% 53% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses792 / 703
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1495 / 1499
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day56.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 50¢ 74¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+47%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 51¢ 74¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 52¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.43 · official $26.43 (match) · 3500 history records