Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2035…679d sports 312 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$173 (+1%) realized +$169 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate80%246W / 63L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$22
14 days−$30
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$75
other 13% +$41
crypto 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.0% -10.5% 88% 12% -12.2%
≤30d 76 -4.9% -14.0% 80% 12% -13.4%
≤90d 309 -0.7% -10.2% 80% 21% -9.0%
all 309 -0.7% -10.2% 80% 21% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 21% -9.0%
10% -18.8% 6% -17.7%
15% -26.6% 1% -25.6%
20% -33.8% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses246 / 63
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions3
Markets (closed)309 / 312
History coverage69d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Monastir: Billy Blaydes vs Paul Inchauspe Billy Blaydes 97¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Simeon Stankovic vs Branko Djuric Branko Djuric 92¢ 94¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jessica Pegula 93¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Monastir: Roger Pascual Ferra vs Ergi Kirkin Jun 19 $40 +$1 +2%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Ipek Oz Jun 19 $40 −$24 -59%
ITF Klosters: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Kai Wehnelt Jun 19 $40 +$1 +4%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Eugenia Zozaya Menendez vs Marie Mettraux Jun 19 $50 +$3 +5%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $50 +$3 +5%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $30 +$2 +6%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 18 $50 −$28 -56%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $35 +$2 +6%
Dublin (Doubles): Bollipalli/Hilderbrand vs Barry/Gannon Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $25 +$1 +5%
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner Jun 18 $1 +$1 +70%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $30 +$2 +5%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $30 +$2 +7%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
ITF Mohammedia: Farhat Aleen Qamar vs Vaidehee Chaudhari Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $30 +$3 +8%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $40 +$2 +4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $30 +$3 +8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $20 +$1 +6%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $25 +$1 +4%
ITF Gimcheon: Alan Magadan vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 04 $30 +$1 +3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 04 $30 +$2 +5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $30 +$2 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $40 +$4 +10%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $30 +$1 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $40 +$5 +13%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $50 +$2 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $60 +$2 +4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $60 −$3 -6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $50 +$3 +6%
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Timofey Skatov May 28 $10 −$6 -57%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $20 +$1 +6%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $50 +$2 +3%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $30 +$2 +5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $90 +$9 +10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $20 +$2 +9%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $40 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Ipek Oz SELL Ipek Oz 39¢ $16 5m
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Ipek Oz BUY Ipek Oz 94¢ $40 22m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Simeon Stankovic vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 92¢ $40 31m
ITF Monastir: Billy Blaydes vs Paul Inchauspe BUY Billy Blaydes 97¢ $40 34m
ITF Monastir: Roger Pascual Ferra vs Ergi Kirkin BUY Ergi Kirkin 98¢ $40 43m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 93¢ $30 53m
ITF Klosters: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Kai Wehnelt BUY Kai Wehnelt 97¢ $40 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Eugenia Zozaya Menendez vs Marie Mettraux BUY Marie Mettraux 95¢ $50 2h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato BUY Dayeon Back 95¢ $20 7h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 96¢ $50 8h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 94¢ $30 10h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 95¢ $50 10h
Dublin (Doubles): Bollipalli/Hilderbrand vs Barry/Gannon BUY Bollipalli/Hilderbrand 92¢ $5 19h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Cash/Tracy 91¢ $30 20h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 94¢ $35 20h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Arribage/Olivetti 91¢ $20 20h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 90¢ $9 21h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 94¢ $5 21h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 95¢ $20 22h
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner BUY Galloway/Peers 58¢ $1 22h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 95¢ $30 23h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 93¢ $30 23h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 96¢ $30 24h
ITF Mohammedia: Farhat Aleen Qamar vs Vaidehee Chaudhari BUY Vaidehee Chaudhari 96¢ $30 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 95¢ $20 31h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 92¢ $30 32h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 91¢ $20 34h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 90¢ $20 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 92¢ $30 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 96¢ $40 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.14 · official $115.57 · 683 history records