Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
20 0x2034…6549 world 29 markets active 13h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$70 (+9%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$74
world 35% −$5
politics 13% +$1
weather 7% −$1
other 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.0% -10.4% 30% 10% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -1.0% -10.4% 30% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -1.0% -10.4% 30% 10% -9.5%
all 29 +15.4% +4.4% 52% 21% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 21% -1.3%
10% -5.6% 10% -10.8%
15% -14.7% 10% -19.4%
20% -23.1% 7% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage471d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $16 −$2 -10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $27 −$1 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Mar 19 $17 +$3 +18%
VCU vs. Duquesne Mar 06 $21 +$45 +214%
Holy Cross vs. Lafayette Mar 06 $38 +$14 +37%
Will Trump say 'million' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $40 +$3 +6%
Sharks vs. Sabres Mar 03 $51 −$2 -3%
Albany vs. Vermont Mar 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'Hamas' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $48 −$4 -9%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4? Mar 03 $55 −$1 -1%
Jets vs. Islanders Mar 03 $87 −$26 -30%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 3? Mar 03 $22 −$5 -23%
Will Trump say 'Mexico' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $21 +$1 +3%
Idaho vs. Montana State Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Georgia vs. South Carolina Mar 03 $51 +$7 +13%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 03 $46 $0 +0%
SE Missouri State vs. Eastern Illinois Mar 03 $16 +$37 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 46h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $49 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $0 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $27 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records