Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x202e…1710 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-20%) realized −$41 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$40 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 40m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 40m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 40m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 18h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.61 · official $106.61 (match) · 9 history records