Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
20 0x2028…8057 crypto 329 markets active 1d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$101 (+2%) realized +$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate79%259W / 70L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$48
14 days+$41
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -4.8% -13.8% 68% 38% -12.0%
≤30d 329 +0.9% -8.7% 79% 38% -8.6%
≤90d 329 +0.9% -8.7% 79% 38% -8.6%
all 329 +0.9% -8.7% 79% 38% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 38% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 16% -17.3%
15% -25.4% 8% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses259 / 70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)329 / 329
History coverage14d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 329 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $17 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 709 history records