Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
20 0x2025…13c0 sports 576 markets active 1d ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$460 (-1%) realized −$460 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%372W / 204L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$740est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$58
14 days+$54
30 days−$692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$908
world 0% −$2
other 0% −$12
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -2.4% -11.7% 63% 46% -10.6%
≤30d 315 -3.7% -12.8% 65% 44% -10.8%
≤90d 554 -4.4% -13.5% 64% 44% -10.8%
all 576 -4.0% -13.1% 65% 44% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 44% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 23% -19.3%
15% -29.0% 14% -27.1%
20% -36.0% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$42 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$460
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses372 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$740
Open positions0
Markets (closed)576 / 576
History coverage99d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 576 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legen Jun 16 $14 −$12 -84%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $22 −$5 -22%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 −$7 -83%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $206 −$37 -18%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $16 −$10 -64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$26 -84%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $79 −$78 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $120 +$38 +32%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $92 +$18 +20%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $6 +$3 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $226 −$7 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $92 +$18 +20%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $127 −$40 -31%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $83 +$7 +9%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $36 +$1 +2%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $25 +$10 +39%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $60 +$49 +81%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $32 +$29 +91%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $22 +$10 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$9 -29%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $23 +$8 +37%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $21 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $17 +$4 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Linette (+1.5) Jun 13 $27 −$23 -86%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $24 +$3 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$3 +15%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$3 +20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $13 $0 -1%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Carolina Alves Jun 12 $14 +$3 +23%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $13 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $11 +$2 +16%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $11 +$6 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$2 -79%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $17 −$13 -76%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $22 −$5 -23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$15 -77%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $70 −$29 -41%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $21 +$1 +6%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $39 +$8 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 46¢ $2 27h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legen SELL Magic 16¢ $2 27h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legen BUY Magic 70¢ $14 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $14 28h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 70¢ $10 28h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 51¢ $10 28h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 21¢ $0 28h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $10 29h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 21¢ $8 29h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 9¢ $2 29h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $9 29h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $9 29h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $22 29h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 7¢ $1 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 57¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro SELL Virtus.pro 31¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 84¢ $16 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 32¢ $16 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $5 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports 7¢ $3 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports 7¢ $2 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 42¢ $31 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 61¢ $31 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 79¢ $12 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 79¢ $68 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $79 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $158 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 80¢ $91 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 75¢ $92 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2168 history records