Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x2021…d379 crypto 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$78 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%75W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$160
14 days+$139
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$55
sports 27% −$162
politics 7% +$131
economics 4% +$26
world 4% +$28
other 3% −$27
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +31.8% +19.2% 71% 71% +24.0%
≤30d 20 +23.7% +11.9% 65% 65% +19.1%
≤90d 126 +0.9% -8.7% 37% 34% -15.0%
all 155 +13.6% +2.7% 48% 45% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 45% -9.4%
10% -7.1% 39% -18.1%
15% -16.1% 35% -26.0%
20% -24.3% 29% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses75 / 80
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage94d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Maria Timofeeva 45¢ 100¢ $40 $89 +$49 (+122%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui Jun 25 $15 +$6 +39%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lina Gjorcheska vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 25 $31 +$48 +158%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 25 $20 +$22 +109%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $96 +$75 +78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva Jun 25 $50 +$15 +29%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson Jun 24 $20 +$8 +41%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $5 +$7 +134%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea Jun 24 $5 +$10 +197%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska Jun 24 $10 +$7 +70%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones Jun 24 $40 +$5 +13%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui Jun 24 $37 +$29 +79%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+2.5) Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 03 $9 +$12 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $3 $0 +7%
Chirayu Rana divorced? May 13 $5 −$4 -76%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 13 $5 −$4 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $444 −$426 -96%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 04 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 04 $31 −$5 -18%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $251 +$167 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 19 and 21 seats May 04 $15 +$5 +31%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat May 04 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $112 −$78 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 03 $203 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 03 $202 +$38 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 03 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 03 $21 +$39 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $91 −$38 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 03 $5 +$17 +320%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui SELL Moez Echargui $0 4m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lina Gjorcheska vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lina Gjorcheska 100¢ $79 9m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean SELL Leolia Jeanjean 100¢ $43 27m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Maria Timofeeva 63¢ $20 43m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui SELL Moez Echargui 19¢ $21 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lina Gjorcheska vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lina Gjorcheska 38¢ $31 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean BUY Leolia Jeanjean 47¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui BUY Moez Echargui 13¢ $15 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Maria Timofeeva 35¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Dusan Lajovic 52¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 44¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios SELL Dane Sweeny 100¢ $171 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios BUY Dane Sweeny 56¢ $86 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios BUY Dane Sweeny 52¢ $10 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 20h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 77¢ $50 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson SELL Heather Watson 100¢ $29 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson BUY Heather Watson 70¢ $20 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic SELL Teodora Kostovic 100¢ $12 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones BUY Anastasia Gasanova 88¢ $40 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 42¢ $5 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 58¢ $10 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Andrea Guerrieri 28¢ $5 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 33¢ $5 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui SELL Moez Echargui 100¢ $66 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui BUY Moez Echargui 55¢ $37 24h
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+2.5) BUY Cobolli 29¢ $22 22d
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.84 · official $88.84 (match) · 382 history records