Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x2021…ede2 other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$16
politics 39% −$14
sports 5% +$77
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 +3.8% -6.1% 9% 8% -9.4%
all 105 +2.5% -7.3% 13% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 10% -9.4%
10% -16.1% 10% -18.1%
15% -24.2% 9% -26.0%
20% -31.7% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×8.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage112d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $326 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $298 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $313 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $264 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $250 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $283 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $335 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $293 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $337 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $301 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $250 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $330 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $298 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $332 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $336 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $273 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $360 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $350 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $326 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $282 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $357 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $263 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $344 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $281 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $301 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $337 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $299 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $360 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $315 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $303 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $356 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 08 $308 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $362 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $275 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 4d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 28d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $313 34d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $313 41d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $293 42d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $293 42d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $264 42d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $264 44d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $250 44d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $250 44d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $242 44d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $243 45d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 45d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $354 45d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $354 45d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $306 45d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $306 45d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $283 45d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $283 46d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $342 46d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $342 46d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $335 47d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $335 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $355 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $355 48d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $293 48d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $293 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records