Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2020…4a10 other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,765 (+1%) realized +$1,765 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%29W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,327per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,027now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$22
14 days−$46
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$233
politics 40% −$85
sports 11% +$1,902
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$3
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
finance 0% +$163
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -1.6% -11.0% 12% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 96 -10.6% -19.1% 10% 6% -8.7%
all 134 -3.8% -13.0% 22% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 10% -8.6%
10% -21.3% 10% -17.4%
15% -28.9% 10% -25.4%
20% -35.9% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,880) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$9 · ×10.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$1,027
Realized+$1,765
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses29 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,327
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $679 $678 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $348 $348 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,517 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,769 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,979 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,277 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,880 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,985 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,150 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $2,862 −$3 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $63 −$63 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $74 +$52 +70%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,429 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,781 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,693 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $334 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $424 +$2 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $449 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,357 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,953 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $4,032 −$4 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $46 +$37 +79%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,865 −$3 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,168 −$1 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $4,582 −$5 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $4,084 −$5 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,156 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2,642 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $1,250 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $1,920 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $1,172 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,199 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $679 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $643 18h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $644 22h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $757 23h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $759 26h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $814 43h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $816 45h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $789 45h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $790 45h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $656 47h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $656 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $676 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $677 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $709 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $710 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $714 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $715 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $348 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $932 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $933 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $830 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $831 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $830 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $831 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,122 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,124 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $939 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $940 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,026.63 · official $1,026.63 (match) · 450 history records