Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x201e…914e other 111 markets active 2d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%58W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% $0
sports 23% −$3
world 20% −$1
politics 19% +$4
crypto 4% +$8
finance 2% −$3
economics 2% +$1
tech 1% +$1
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +22.0% +10.4% 60% 60% +7.7%
≤30d 10 +22.0% +10.4% 60% 60% +7.7%
≤90d 48 -4.1% -13.2% 54% 48% -14.2%
all 103 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 52% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 52% -8.0%
10% -18.3% 45% -16.8%
15% -26.2% 34% -24.8%
20% -33.5% 27% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses58 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)103 / 111
History coverage102d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 97¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+110%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 69¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 77¢ 77¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 84¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 78¢ 65¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 58¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 66¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 86¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +108%
Will Trump say "The War Is Over" this week? (April 20 - 26) Jun 11 $3 +$3 +113%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +89%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +113%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 18 $3 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $3 +$2 +69%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $3 $0 -14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 17 $3 $0 -15%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb Apr 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian S Apr 17 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 16 $3 −$2 -72%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Apr 16 $3 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 15 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Apr 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA seas Apr 13 $3 +$1 +50%
Will the Denver Nuggets win more than 53.5 regular season games in 202 Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers have the worst record in the NBA? Apr 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the Houston Rockets win more than 52.5 regular season games in 20 Apr 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 09 $5 +$2 +45%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 08 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will White House post 200+ posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $3 +$3 +107%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 06 $3 +$5 +160%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $3 +$4 +138%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in March? Mar 28 $4 −$3 -63%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 23 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Mar 22 $3 $0 -0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 22 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Trump say "Oil" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press confere Mar 18 $3 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 2d
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 86¢ $2 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $3 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 6d
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 84¢ $3 6d
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 78¢ $3 6d
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 6d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 6d
Will Trump say "The War Is Over" this week? (April 20 - 26) BUY Yes 46¢ $3 60d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 77¢ $3 60d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 60d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 61d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $3 61d
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 17? BUY Up 91¢ $3 61d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $3 61d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL No 50¢ $3 61d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 61d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 61d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY No 59¢ $3 61d
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb SELL Yes 99¢ $4 61d
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian S SELL No 99¢ $4 61d
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 SELL Yes 99¢ $5 61d
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 61d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? SELL No 14¢ $1 61d
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.69 · official $24.79 (match) · 193 history records