Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
20 0x201e…d516 crypto 548 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$731 (+1%) realized +$733 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate77%417W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$50
14 days−$768
30 days+$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$64
sports 8% −$11
other 4% −$40
world 3% +$60
politics 1% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +7.3% -3.0% 87% 35% -8.4%
≤30d 395 +1.4% -8.3% 78% 47% -8.6%
≤90d 520 +3.8% -6.1% 76% 46% -9.6%
all 544 +4.1% -5.8% 77% 45% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 45% -9.5%
10% -14.8% 26% -18.1%
15% -23.0% 14% -26.0%
20% -30.6% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$51 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized+$733
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses417 / 127
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions4
Markets (closed)544 / 548
History coverage123d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 95¢ 94¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? No 93¢ 93¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? No 94¢ 94¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 86¢ 86¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Diego Moreira: 1+ goals Jun 15 $150 +$13 +8%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $200 +$15 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $201 +$29 +14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $90 +$8 +8%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $62 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $69 +$36 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$22 +44%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $151 −$48 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$27 +52%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $200 +$11 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $110 +$12 +11%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $80 +$6 +7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$10 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $400 +$18 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $56 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $46 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $151 −$100 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $201 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$13 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 93¢ $100 55m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $200 56m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $70 57m
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $100 57m
Diego Moreira: 1+ goals BUY No 92¢ $150 18h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 92¢ $100 19h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 93¢ $200 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 97¢ $106 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $107 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 98¢ $40 32h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY No 87¢ $201 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $106 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 92¢ $90 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 2d
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $104 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $62 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $101 2d
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.27 · official $468.27 (match) · 1454 history records