Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:12:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2018…f22d other 187 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%17W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$15
politics 24% −$18
sports 24% −$32
crypto 9% −$6
economics 5% −$6
culture 4% −$5
world 2% −$2
finance 1% −$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 101 -0.4% -9.9% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 186 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses17 / 169
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)186 / 187
History coverage171d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 95¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $145 −$2 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $56 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 25 $168 −$2 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $211 −$2 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $87 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 23 $256 −$2 -1%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $193 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $273 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $58 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 21 $64 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $113 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $254 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 19 $49 −$1 -2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $152 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? May 18 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $52 $0 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 16 $41 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $151 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $221 −$1 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $51 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $61 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 15 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 14 $139 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $59 +$5 +8%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 10 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 08 $50 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $59 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $57 13d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 13d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $48 26d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 26d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 34d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 34d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $55 34d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $55 34d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $50 34d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $51 35d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $56 35d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $57 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL No 95¢ $58 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $59 35d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $51 35d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $52 35d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 90¢ $44 35d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $45 36d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $38 36d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $39 36d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $47 36d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $47 36d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $54 36d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $54 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $53 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $53 37d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $42 37d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $42 37d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $64 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.63 · official $58.63 (match) · 810 history records