Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:14:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
20 0x2018…3699 other 378 markets active 1h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,301 (-3%) realized −$1,302 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate74%276W / 95L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$7
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$1,146
crypto 16% −$2
world 1% −$36
sports 1% −$101
finance 0% −$9
politics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.0% -16.8% 86% 14% -8.8%
≤30d 24 -15.2% -23.3% 75% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 74 -5.7% -14.6% 82% 3% -10.0%
all 371 -7.0% -15.8% 74% 21% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 21% -11.8%
10% -23.9% 12% -20.3%
15% -31.2% 8% -28.0%
20% -38.0% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$20 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$1,302
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses276 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)371 / 378
History coverage310d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $138 +$2 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $298 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Trump and Melania's remarks not air? May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $11 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $148 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $104 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $188 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $149 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 21 $19 −$9 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $294 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 26¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 5d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 5d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 46¢ $1 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 5¢ $1 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $1 10d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 12d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 12d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $94 14d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 14d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 14d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 14d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 14d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 14d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 16d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 17d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 17d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $104 19d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $300 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.85 · official $124.85 (match) · 866 history records