Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2017…0a41 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate25%20W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$2
other 24% $0
politics 19% −$1
sports 11% −$11
economics 6% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 22% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 26 +77.3% +60.4% 27% 12% -9.5%
≤90d 71 +28.9% +16.7% 25% 8% -9.5%
all 79 +23.5% +11.7% 25% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 8% -9.8%
10% +1.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -8.7% 1% -26.4%
20% -17.7% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses20 / 59
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)79 / 84
History coverage527d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $3 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $58 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $42 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $167 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $77 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $37 +$3 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $6 −$2 -34%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $16 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $5 +$1 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $42 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $76 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $3 $0 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $1 $0 +25%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $50 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $1 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $8 20h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 9¢ $8 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $39 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $39 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $15 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $7 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $22 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $40 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $40 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $44 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $9 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $31 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.24 · official $39.54 (match) · 362 history records